Meir Ben-Shabbat
Credit: Meir Elipur, Misgav
Head of the Jerusalem-based Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, former National Security Advisor to the Israeli Prime Minister, and former chief of the Israel Security Agency’s Gaza Command
- Many compare the attack of October 7, 2023, to the Arab surprise assault of October 1973. Do you agree?
“I don’t find any value in comparing these two events. Each has its own characteristics. Both events exacted a heavy price from Israel. Much has been said about the Yom Kippur War, and much will be said about the terror attack by Hamas.
“In addition to the direct heavy cost of the current war, in spirit and body, this is also a huge blow to Israel’s deterrence, and the attack also damaged Israeli citizens’ confidence in their security system. Rebuilding this deterrence and confidence will not be easy, but this is a very important goal of Israel.”
- How can one explain the failure of intelligence? After all, this kind of operation requires long preparations.
“Indeed, such things should never happen. There will be a time for hard questions, lessons and investigations. For now, we should devote all our efforts and attention to winning the war.”
- There are people who think this attack came after many years in which Gaza was under Israeli blockade and was basically controlled by the IDF. Do you accept this version of events?
“The struggle of Hamas against Israel begun the day this terror organization was founded. Hamas does not hide its ideological beliefs. The terror group’s charter explicitly says that its goal is to build a Palestinian Islamic and theocratic state in this area, in the territories that includes the State of Israel.
“I would like to remind you that already in 1994 Israel ceded most of Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority. In 2005 Israel evacuated all Israeli settlements from Gaza, and also all of its military forces. After all of these Israeli actions, no one can come to us with any complaints.
“Hamas took over the Gaza Strip. Its biggest and only enterprise is terror. It has invested all its money in terror attack tunnels, rockets, explosives and other means of destruction and death. The Hamas wars against Israel, over and over again, have left thousands of Palestinian families mourning their dead relatives, tens of thousands of wounded, and families left homeless. The only future Hamas offers its people is painted with blood, destruction and terror.
“Hamas and ISIS are twins. The whole world saw last Saturday how Hamas uses the same barbaric language and means as ISIS.”
- Hasn’t the Israeli government’s policy so far, of weakening the Palestinian Authority, strengthened Hamas and encouraged it to launch this assault?
“The weakness of the Palestinian Authority is a result of its basic problems and internal ills. Don’t blame Israel for PA corruption and violence. The Palestinian Authority allowed and still allows things to happen that Israel cannot accept. For instance, the lawless security situation in northern Samaria, the transfer of large sums of money to terrorists and their families in a way that encourages terror, and the glorification of terrorists. Only last week we saw a state funeral for a terrorist that tried to kill Jews in Hawara, instead of formal condemnation by the Palestinian Authority.”
- What can Israel do now against Gaza, which it has not done in the past?
“According to the Prime Minister Office’s announcement, the goal set by the security cabinet is to bring about destruction of the military and civil capabilities of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, in a way that will deny their ability and desire to harm Israeli citizens for many years.
“Israel must exact a very high price from Hamas, in order to restore its deterrence posture. In our region, sadly, “high price” is determined mainly by the number of casualties. The current reality not only justifies but also obliges Israel to set aside its surgical strike operations (which are indeed capable of accurately targeting the enemy and characterizes Israel’s special capabilities.) But surgical strikes require long and complex preparations. Hamas must pay a higher price for its deadly attack.
“Instead, the IDF should warn the civilian population in Gaza about its plans for a broad, massive, continuous assault into Gaza immediately after expiration of an ultimatum, after which the military will target anything that is related to Hamas: Hams leadership, their houses, offices, banks, vehicles, generators, boats, warehouses, and armament workshops. Israel also should do away with tip-toe-like procedures like ‘Knock on the Roof’, that only make military operations more complex.
“In addition, the IDF should immediately create a ‘security zone’ – an area of 300 meters all along the east side of the Gaza border fence, and announce that any Palestinian who enters this zone endangers himself. The rules of engagement should be resolute. All actions in this zone could be done with aerial command, and should not require having military boots on the ground.
“Israel should release itself from any economic and civilian responsibility for the Palestinians in Gaza. The IDF Coordination and Liaison Administration for the Gaza Strip should be disbanded, and the passages between Israel and the Strip, including the one designated for fuels and goods in Kerem Shalom, should be closed. Israel should minimize electricity transfer to Gaza, and jam all cellular and internet reception in the Gaza Strip.”
- Is there any linkage between the Hamas attack and its timing to events in Temple Mount and in the West Bank?
“These things might have somewhat contributed to the decision to launch a war, but I am not sure this was the major consideration for Hamas.”
- Do you think Nasrallah’s theory of “spider webs” is valid, and Hamas felt a weakening of Israeli perseverance?
“We can assume that the internal crisis in Israel suggested to our enemies the notion that Israel is divided and weak. They did not take into consideration that Israeli society knows how to come together against threats to its existence. The Bible already described Israel thus: ‘Behold, the people shall rise up as a great lion, And lift up like a young lion’ (Numbers 23:24).”
- Was this attack coordinated and planned by Iran? Did Hamas hope Hezbollah would join the initial attack? And what is the possibility of the Lebanese organization, maybe even Iran itself, joining the battles now?
“This scenario is being evaluated by decision makers and heads of the IDF. We should prepare for it, and make sure we do not devote all our capabilities and resources to a single front.”
- Could Israel ever repair its lost deterrence?
“The US took a huge blow on September 11, but America made sure that its enemies paid a mighty price for this. Today, no one doubts US power and capabilities. Israeli deterrence will surely recover, too. Hamas will pay such a very heavy price that it will question whether the attack against Israel was worthwhile. This will not come swiftly or immediately, but I have no doubt it will happen.”
