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Dr. (Brig. Gen. res.) Amnon Sofrin
Visiting Lecturer, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; former Head of the Intelligence Directorate, Mossad
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- As far as we know, what does the agreement with Iran include, and does it reflect Israel’s interests?
“As far as we know, the agreement will be quite similar to the agreement from 2015. The main concern currently is that Iran gained a lot of knowledge and experience which professionalized its nuclear capabilities, and these capabilities will not be retracted. This means that Iran now masters the “nuclear process,” and at the same time it will not be forced to dismantle any of its facilities.
“Tehran will probably be required to send some or most of the enriched uranium it posses (about 3 tons of enriched uranium) to other countries, but the knowledge is there and the facilities will be kept as they are. This situation certainly doesn’t match Israel’s position, since it enables Iran to renew its nuclear activities and to rush to a nuclear device upon decision.”
- Latest reports in Israel and abroad claim that Iran is very close to obtaining a nuclear bomb. What are the chances that this agreement will manage to “rollback” Teheran’s nuclear capabilities?
“The coming agreement will not rollback Iran’s nuclear capabilities, as it gained knowledge and experience since 2015. Iran controls the nuclear fuel process, and this can not be rolled back. We understand the coming agreement will not force Teheran to dismantle its facilities, and the combination together with the know-how process ensures that Iran will be able to go on with its plans for a nuclear bomb whenever it wants.”
- Following a deal, what should Israel’s policy vis-à-vis its signatories be in the future? How will it impact the current government’s relationship with the current Administration in Washington, and the US-Israel alliance strategically?
“The agreement will not affect US-Israel relations, which are very strong, they spread over many areas of activities, and will not be harmed. Nevertheless, a new agreement without Iran ‘paying a price’ will strengthen its position in the Middle East.
“In addition, the economic outcomes of a new agreement, which will get off some pressure of its economy, will allow Iran to recover and will increase its ability to support its allies in the Middle East. Israel will find itself competing with the growing challenges facing from Iran and its proxies, and it will be alone, without American support.”
- When Israel refers to the “military option,” what exactly does it entail, and what is the likelihood that we will reach this scenario?
“When Israel refers to the ‘military option,’ it aims to cause damage to the Iranian nuclear program. This kind of scenario can become real only if and when Iran will continue its effort to complete the process and generate the first nuclear device – and this will happen without any global reaction or interference.
“Israel’s decision makers must bear in mind, though, that a military operation means launching a long and protracted struggle against Iran, alongside the direct involvement of Hezbollah from Lebanon, who will be firing rockets and missiles to Israel, and with the assistance of Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Therefore, such a scenario of an Israeli attack on Iran should be considered as the last possible option.”