Dr. Dikla Cohen, Truman Institute and the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
During the month of Iyar 1968, when the pupils of Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook spontaneously began marching, accompanied by dancing, along the route from Jaffa Street to the Western Wall, they probably never imagined that the path they were treading would become a popular custom in the State of Israel and a tradition recognized among others that mark Jerusalem Day.
The authentic joy of this national day, felt amongst the followers of Rabbi Kook, was kept alive mainly within the Religious Zionist sector, but sporadically one could spot among the celebrants also Israelis and residents of Jerusalem who aren’t part of this sector. These people join the march to express their joy over the unification of the Israeli capital.
Since 2010, the Flags March seems to have become a source of hardship and spurred popular protests by residents of east Jerusalem, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. In May 2021 the march coincided with the Muslim holiday of Eid El-Fitr – but was abruptly halted only two hours from the beginning of the march as sirens blared all over the city, triggered by rockets fired from the Gaza Strip. The salvo marked the beginning of an escalation that became Operation Guardians of the Walls, a war between Israel and terror organizations in the Gaza Strip.
Unfortunately, this military operation became vastly more complex when violence erupted on other fronts apart from Gaza, including terror attacks and riots within Israel, resulting from conflicts between Jews and Arabs in Israel’s mixed cities; and also terror attacks from the Northern front, with rocket fire from Syria and Lebanon.
The scenario of a combination of fronts, as occurred during Operation Guardians of the Walls, is the most dreaded nightmare of Israeli decision makers. Violent attacks from all directions, along with symptoms of a loss of control in central cities such as Haifa, Acre, Ramla and Lod, had a negative effect on the sense of personal security of each and every Israeli citizen. In addition, the rehabilitation process, which has been dragging on for two years now, is slow and inconsistent.
In order to prevent a similarly dreadful scenario, Israeli decision makers understand now the major significance of preserving the status quo in Jerusalem. Decisions by the Supreme Court published on this issue in 2015-2016, preserved the status quo and denied appeals by different NGOs that sought to reroute the march away from the Muslim Quarter in the Old City.
If the police will let this logic lead its course, it should try with all of its might to let the march go as planned, but reduce to a minimum the friction points between marchers and residents of east Jerusalem. The commander of the Jerusalem District in Israel Police will probably order his men to quickly neutralize any outburst of physical or verbal abuse coming from either side of this conflict.
As for the Gaza Strip, the members of the Islamic Jihad organization are still licking their wounds and are having difficulty picking themselves up after the mighty blows they sustained and the targeted killings of senior operatives during Operation Shield and Arrow, which ended only a few days ago.
Hamas, the sovereign entity in the territory, has actually become strengthened by this. The rockets reserves it posseses were supposedly not damaged in the conflict, and the organization was also considered the responsible adult in the room alongside Egypt when the time came to mediate and maintain a ceasefire. Therefore, one can very cautiously estimate that Hamas will not be dragged into provoking Israel unless the security situation escalates to extreme scenarios.
Reactions by the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and Fatah also very much depend on the way in which the march in Jerusalem will transpire. If the status quo will be disrupted, and steps will be made that may be perceived as extreme provocations and attempts to forcibly take control over Al-Aqsa Mosque, a local conflict might erupt. Such an outcome would also negatively affect ‘lone wolf’ terrorists, who are looking for any source of inspiration for their acts of alleged revenge.
To conclude, the focus of Jerusalem Day 2023 will be the traditional Flags march and the people marching from the Western part of the city to its East. We can only hope that this year, residents of east Jerusalem and marchers celebrating in the city will obey police instructions and allow everyone to return peacefully to their daily lives once the dust has settled.
